MLB Pitchers — 2026-10-15
dominance probabilities · price-driven OE · ref-class verdict (hover the verdict for the full reference class)
UPDATED 2026-10-15 9:05 AM ET
PREVIEW · 2 OF 4
| PLAYER | OPP | PRICE | P(GOOD) | P(DOM) | P(MEGA) | P(D)OE | P(M)OE | POWN | REF CLASS VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | MIL | 9500 | 48.9% | 25.8% | 13.5% | -3.9% | -2.5% | 32.6% | lean OVER -6.7pp |
| Gavin Williams | TB | 9000 | 56.2% | 30.8% | 16.9% | +5.7% | +3.5% | 71.4% | OVER-SELLING -8.5pp |
2 of 4 players shown — subscribers see the full chart · click a column to sort · hover a header for its definition
COLUMN KEY
- OPP
- Opponent.
- PRICE
- DraftKings salary.
- P(GOOD)
- Model probability of a good start — 21+ DK points.
- P(DOM)
- Model probability of a dominant start — 27+ DK points.
- P(MEGA)
- Model probability of a mega start — 31+ DK points.
- P(D)OE
- P(Dominant) minus what his price implies (fit across today's slate). Positive = more dominant upside than priced.
- P(M)OE
- P(Mega) minus what his price implies. Positive = more mega upside than priced.
- POWN
- Projected ownership from our ownership simulator (informational).
- REF CLASS VERDICT
- Reference-class check on P(Dominant): this pitcher's historical starts vs offenses like tonight's opponent, compared to the model. Positive = the model may be under-selling him. HOVER THE CELL for the full reference class.
SUBSCRIBERS SEE THE WHOLE CHART
2 of 4 rows above. The other 2 are one step away.
Every row, every column, every update — plus the Discord where the analysis behind these numbers is posted before lock. All Access or DFS plans unlock this page.