MLB Hitters — 2026-10-15
per-hitter explosion probabilities · price-driven OE · filter by position and team
UPDATED 2026-10-15 9:05 AM ET
PREVIEW · 8 OF 36
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | VS SP | ORDER | SALARY | POWN% | P(GOOD) | P(EXPL) | P(MEGA) | P(E)OE | P(M)OE | XWOBA FORM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 1B/OF | LAD | Dustin May | 6 | 5700 | 34.9% | 33.3% | 17.0% | 9.7% | +3.6% | +2.4% | COLD −.050 |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | TB | Gavin Williams | 3 | 5500 | 19.5% | 27.2% | 12.1% | 6.5% | -1.1% | -0.6% | HOT +.074 |
| Jackson Chourio | OF | MIL | Tyler Glasnow | 1 | 5400 | 18.3% | 37.7% | 16.3% | 9.1% | +3.4% | +2.1% | HOT +.141 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | LAD | Dustin May | 2 | 4800 | 40.5% | 32.6% | 13.6% | 7.4% | +2.1% | +1.3% | COLD −.080 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | OF | LAD | Dustin May | 3 | 4100 | 29.5% | 30.6% | 13.1% | 7.0% | +3.4% | +2.0% | neutral +.014 |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | CLE | Griffin Jax | 6 | 3600 | 23.8% | 22.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% | -1.1% | -0.7% | COLD −.123 |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | CLE | Griffin Jax | 9 | 3200 | 14.3% | 17.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | -2.5% | -1.4% | neutral −.007 |
| Taylor Walls | SS | TB | Gavin Williams | 9 | 2600 | 7.3% | 17.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% | -1.6% | -0.9% | COLD −.034 |
8 of 36 players shown — subscribers see the full chart · click a column to sort · hover a header for its definition
COLUMN KEY
- POS
- DraftKings position eligibility.
- TEAM
- Team.
- VS SP
- The opposing starting pitcher.
- ORDER
- Batting order. Green = lineup is officially confirmed; grey = projected lineup.
- SALARY
- DraftKings salary.
- POWN%
- ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE — projected % of lineups rostering this hitter, from our ownership simulator. This is the WEAKEST part of the ownership model: it falls out of within-stack lineup selection (driven by projection + salary value) and is NOT calibrated against real per-hitter contest ownership the way our stack ownership (ρ=0.59) and pitcher ownership (ρ=0.71) are. It will tend to over-state the top projection/value bat on each team and under-state the rest. Use as a rough directional read, not a precise ownership number.
- P(GOOD)
- Model probability of a good night — 10+ DK points.
- P(EXPL)
- Model probability of an explosion game — 17+ DK points.
- P(MEGA)
- Model probability of a mega game — 21+ DK points.
- P(E)OE
- P(Explosion) minus the expectation at his salary (price-driven, whole slate). Positive = more explosion upside than priced.
- P(M)OE
- P(Mega) minus what his price implies. Positive = more mega upside than priced.
- XWOBA FORM
- Recent quality-of-contact vs season baseline: blend of L5/L10 mean+median per-game xwOBA deltas. Hover for the full breakdown. xwOBA strips BABIP/sequencing luck, so hot/cold here is contact quality, not a results mirage.
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